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Prediction of the SYM-H Index Using a Bayesian Deep Learning Method with Uncertainty Quantification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a novel deep learning framework, named SYMHnet, which employs a graph neural network and a bidirectional long short-term memory network to cooperatively learn patterns from solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters for short-term forecasts of the SYM-H index based on 1-minute and 5-minute resolution data. SYMHnet takes, as input, the time series of the parameters' values provided by NASA's Space Science Data Coordinated Archive and predicts, as output, the SYM-H index value at time point t + w hours for a given time point t where w is 1 or 2. By incorporating Bayesian inference into the learning framework, SYMHnet can quantify both aleatoric (data) uncertainty and epistemic (model) uncertainty when predicting future SYM-H indices. Experimental results show that SYMHnet works well at quiet time and storm time, for both 1-minute and 5-minute resolution data. The results also show that SYMHnet generally performs better than related machine learning methods. For example, SYMHnet achieves a forecast skill score (FSS) of 0.343 compared to the FSS of 0.074 of a recent gradient boosting machine (GBM) method when predicting SYM-H indices (1 hour in advance) in a large storm (SYM-H = -393 nT) using 5-minute resolution data. When predicting the SYM-H indices (2 hours in advance) in the large storm, SYMHnet achieves an FSS of 0.553 compared to the FSS of 0.087 of the GBM method. In addition, SYMHnet can provide results for both data and model uncertainty quantification, whereas the related methods cannot.


Multi-modal Representation Learning for Cross-modal Prediction of Continuous Weather Patterns from Discrete Low-Dimensional Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

World is looking for clean and renewable energy sources that do not pollute the environment, in an attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to global warming. Wind energy has significant potential to not only reduce greenhouse emission, but also meet the ever increasing demand for energy. To enable the effective utilization of wind energy, addressing the following three challenges in wind data analysis is crucial. Firstly, improving data resolution in various climate conditions to ensure an ample supply of information for assessing potential energy resources. Secondly, implementing dimensionality reduction techniques for data collected from sensors/simulations to efficiently manage and store large datasets. Thirdly, extrapolating wind data from one spatial specification to another, particularly in cases where data acquisition may be impractical or costly. We propose a deep learning based approach to achieve multi-modal continuous resolution wind data prediction from discontinuous wind data, along with data dimensionality reduction.


Unpaired Downscaling of Fluid Flows with Diffusion Bridges

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a method to downscale idealized geophysical fluid simulations using generative models based on diffusion maps. By analyzing the Fourier spectra of images drawn from different data distributions, we show how one can chain together two independent conditional diffusion models for use in domain translation. The resulting transformation is a diffusion bridge between a low resolution and a high resolution dataset and allows for new sample generation of high-resolution images given specific low resolution features. The ability to generate new samples allows for the computation of any statistic of interest, without any additional calibration or training. Our unsupervised setup is also designed to downscale images without access to paired training data; this flexibility allows for the combination of multiple source and target domains without additional training. We demonstrate that the method enhances resolution and corrects context-dependent biases in geophysical fluid simulations, including in extreme events. We anticipate that the same method can be used to downscale the output of climate simulations, including temperature and precipitation fields, without needing to train a new model for each application and providing a significant computational cost savings.


ClimAlign: Unsupervised statistical downscaling of climate variables via normalizing flows

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Downscaling is a landmark task in climate science and meteorology in which the goal is to use coarse scale, spatio-temporal data to infer values at finer scales. Statistical downscaling aims to approximate this task using statistical patterns gleaned from an existing dataset of downscaled values, often obtained from observations or physical models. In this work, we investigate the application of deep latent variable learning to the task of statistical downscaling. We present ClimAlign, a novel method for unsupervised, generative downscaling using adaptations of recent work in normalizing flows for variational inference. We evaluate the viability of our method using several different metrics on two datasets consisting of daily temperature and precipitation values gridded at low (1 degree latitude/longitude) and high (1/4 and 1/8 degree) resolutions. We show that our method achieves comparable predictive performance to existing supervised statistical downscaling methods while simultaneously allowing for both conditional and unconditional sampling from the joint distribution over high and low resolution spatial fields. We provide publicly accessible implementations of our method, as well as the baselines used for comparison, on GitHub.


Rapid Whole-Heart CMR with Single Volume Super-resolution

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Background: Three-dimensional, whole heart, balanced steady state free precession (WH-bSSFP) sequences provide delineation of intra-cardiac and vascular anatomy. However, they have long acquisition times. Here, we propose significant speed ups using a deep learning single volume super resolution reconstruction, to recover high resolution features from rapidly acquired low resolution WH-bSSFP images. Methods: A 3D residual U-Net was trained using synthetic data, created from a library of high-resolution WH-bSSFP images by simulating 0.5 slice resolution and 0.5 phase resolution. The trained network was validated with synthetic test data, as well as prospective low-resolution data. Results: Synthetic low-resolution data had significantly better image quality after super-resolution reconstruction. Qualitative image scores showed super-resolved images had better edge sharpness, fewer residual artefacts and less image distortion than low-resolution images, with similar scores to high-resolution data. Quantitative image scores showed super-resolved images had significantly better edge sharpness than low-resolution or high-resolution images, with significantly better signal-to-noise ratio than high-resolution data. Vessel diameters measurements showed over-estimation in the low-resolution measurements, compared to the high-resolution data. No significant differences and no bias was found in the super-resolution measurements. Conclusion: This paper demonstrates the potential of using a residual U-Net for super-resolution reconstruction of rapidly acquired low-resolution whole heart bSSFP data within a clinical setting. The resulting network can be applied very quickly, making these techniques particularly appealing within busy clinical workflow. Thus, we believe that this technique may help speed up whole heart CMR in clinical practice.


Shark! A Toothy Ton of Data - InformationWeek

#artificialintelligence

When scientists want to study birds, they have an enormous crowdsourced data set that they can use. When they want to study mammals on land, they can tag them and track them. But what about when scientists want to study marine animals like sharks? The world's oceans are much bigger than its land mass. Human scientists are land creatures, too, so most of their in-person observations are limited to the surface of the water, and the surface is just a fraction of the actual volume of the ocean which averages 2.3 miles deep.